Tus kab mob muaj peev xwm tawm tsam ib pab neeg ntau dua li lwm pawg. Tus kab mob npaws xyoo 1918, uas tau thov 50 lab tus neeg nyob thoob plaws ntiaj teb, tshwj xeeb yog cuam tshuam rau cov neeg hluas. Tus kab mob Zika tshwm sim los ntawm Brazil hauv 2015-2016 tau muaj kev cuam tshuam tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov poj niam cev xeeb tub, tawm tsam lub hlwb ntawm cov menyuam hauv plab uas lawv nqa. KEV THEM-19, tus kab mob tshwm sim los ntawm tus kabmob tshiab uas muaj nyob rau hauv Suav teb, zoo li muaj kev phom sij ntau nrog lub hnub nyoog, hais tias Michael Mina, MD, PhD, tus pab xibfwb ntawm cov kabmob kis kabmob ntawm Harvard T.H. Chan Tsev Kawm Ntawv Kev Noj Qab Haus Huv. Nws hais tias "zoo li yuav muaj qhov pib no - qis dua [hnub nyoog] 35 peb tab tom pom qhov ua tsis tau [zero]," nws hais. "Vim tias tib neeg muaj hnub nyoog nce ntawm lawv 40s txog 80s, peb tau pom kev tuag ntau zuj zus." Tus kab mob, uas tau tshwm sim lig xyoo tas los, tam sim no suav ntau dua 80,000 tus neeg thiab 2,700 tus neeg tuag, feem ntau ntawm lawv nyob hauv Suav teb.
Kev tshawb fawb luam tawm hauv Phau Ntawv Xov Xwm ntawm Am. Med. Tau tshawb xyuas thawj 45,000 kis mob hauv Suav teb pom tias 80% ntawm cov neeg mob ntawd qhia me me. Lwm 20% ntawm cov neeg kuaj pom muaj mob nrab, mob hnyav, lossis mob hnyav, suav nrog kev ua pa nyuaj, mob ntsws, thiab lub cev tsis ua haujlwm. Kwv yees li ntawm 2.3% ntawm tag nrho cov mob tau ua rau tuag taus. Kev mob hnyav rau mob ntsws (SARS), tus kabmob zoo sib xws uas tau pib hauv Tuam Tshoj xyoo 2002, tseem ua rau cov neeg muaj hnub nyoog tshaj 60 qhov nyuaj tshaj. Ntau tshaj 8,000 tus neeg tau kis tus kabmob no ntau tshaj 8 lub hlis, ze li 10% ntawm cov neeg tuag. Nrog rau COVID-19, txog tam sim no cov menyuam hnub nyoog 1-9 muaj li 1% ntawm tag nrho cov neeg kis tau mob Suav, thiab tsis muaj ib tus neeg tuag, raws li JAMA txoj kev tshawb nrhiav. Lwm 1% yog hnub nyoog 10-19. Ntawm cov neeg hauv lawv 70s uas tau kis tus kabmob, 8% tuag, txoj kev tshawb pom pom, nrog rau ze li 15% ntawm 80 thiab laus dua. Mina hais tias "Qee tus neeg hauv lawv lub 80s muaj qhov pheej hmoo siab heev uas yuav tsis tawm hauv lub tsev kho mob" yog tias tau txais kev kho mob rau COVID-19, Mina hais.
Cov ntaub ntawv thaum ntxov tau qhia tias tus txiv neej ua rau muaj kev phom sij ntau dua, raws li lawv suav tsuas yog ntau dua li ib nrab ntawm tus mob, raws li Lub Chaw Haujlwm Tiv Thaiv Suav thiab Suav. Tus txiv neej kis tau tuag ob zaug ua rau poj niam mob. Mina hais tias tus txiv neej yuav suav nrog ntau qhov teeb meem vim tias lawv tau sim ntau dua, tab sis "cov pov thawj tsis muaj zog los ua qhov kev txiav txim siab zoo."
Nws yog ib qho ua tau, ntau tus kws tshaj lij hais rau The New York Times, tias vim cov txiv neej Suav nyiam cov poj niam ua luam yeeb ntau dua, lawv tuaj yeem raug ntau dua li poj niam. Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Noj Qab Haus Huv Hauv Ntiaj Teb xyoo 2019 pom tias 47.6% ntawm cov txiv neej Suav haus luam yeeb, piv rau tsuas yog 1.8% ntawm cov poj niam suav. Cov poj niam tseem feem ntau ua rau lub cev muaj zog teb ntau dua li tus txiv neej. Cov neeg uas muaj teeb meem mob plawv, ntshav qab zib, lossis mob ntsws xws li COPD tseem muaj kev pheej hmoo siab rau kev muaj mob hnyav thiab kev tuag ntau, hais tias Jeanne Marrazzo, MD, tus thawj coj ntawm Feem Saib Xyuas Cov Kab Mob ntawm University of Alabama ntawm Birmingham Lub Tsev Kawm Ntawv ntawm Tshuaj. Nws tau muab piv rau COVID-19 txog kev tiv thaiv tus mob ntsws, uas zoo li yuav cuam tshuam ntau dua rau cov neeg uas twb muaj lub cev tsis muaj zog tiv thaiv kab mob.
Kev Tiv Thaiv rau Menyuam Mos
Cov poj niam cev xeeb tub tsis zoo li muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm tus kab mob no, txawm tias tsuas yog qee qhov tau ua tib zoo taug qab los txog tam sim no. Ib txoj kev tshawb fawb luam tawm tsis ntev los no hauv The Lancet pom tias cuaj tus poj niam uas tau kis los ntawm COVID-19 tsis kis tus kabmob rau lawv cov menyuam, thiab Mina hais tias cov menyuam mos tshiab zoo li tsis muaj kabmob dabtsi phem tshaj plaws. Nws tau hais tias "Kuv xav tias muaj pes tsawg tus menyuam yaus tuag lawm yog lub cev me me, piv rau cov neeg uas tej zaum tau kis," "Peb nyuam qhuav tsis pom kev mob nkeeg." Cov kws tshawb fawb tsis paub vim li cas menyuam yaus zoo li muaj kev tiv thaiv, txawm tias leej niam leej txiv paub, lawv feem ntau yog tus neeg xa xov rau tus kab mob. Mina hais tias me nyuam lub cev muaj peev xwm tswj tau tus kab mob zoo dua, lossis tej zaum lawv muaj kev tiv thaiv kab mob dhau los, lossis tus kab mob kis tsis tau zoo nyob rau lawv vim qee qhov laj thawj. Cov neeg ua haujlwm saib xyuas kev noj qab haus huv kuj pom muaj kev pheej hmoo. Tsawg kawg yog 1,700 tau kis tus kab mob thaum kho cov neeg mob nyob hauv Suav teb, feem ntau hauv Hubei xeev uas muaj tus mob tshwm sim thaum pib. Tshaj tag nrho, ze li ntawm 15% ntawm tus neeg ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm noj qab haus huv tau raug cais ua qhov hnyav lossis hnyav, thiab tsib tus neeg tau tag sim neej, suav nrog Li Wenliang, 34 xyoo ntawm tus kws kho mob hlwb suav uas tau sim los tshaj tawm ua ntej qhia txog tus kabmob.
Sim pab thiab ua kom muaj mob
Cov neeg ua haujlwm saib xyuas kev noj qab haus huv feem ntau yuav muaj kev tiv thaiv yooj yim, raws li Mina, txawm tias lawv tsis paub tias tus neeg uas lawv tau kho yog tus mob, tsis tau hnav lub iav tiv thaiv zoo tag nrho nrog rau txhua tus ntawm kaum tus neeg mob uas lawv tau kho, lossis vim tias lawv tau kis thaum lawv xav tias lawv nyab xeeb, xws li nyob hauv cov tsev so chaw uas lawv pw. Ua tsis dhau ntawm kev sib ntaus yeej pab tsis tau, nws hais. Marrazzo hais tias nws txhawj xeeb heev txog cov neeg ua haujlwm kho mob yav dhau los uas muaj mob tsis muaj mob thiab tuag. Nws tau hais tias lawv tau mob hnyav dua li cov neeg nruab nrab vim tias lawv tau kis cov neeg mob uas muaj lub nra hnyav heev, nws hais tias nws txhawj xeeb tias cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Suav teb yuav tsis qhia tag nrho cov dab neeg txog cov neeg ua haujlwm no.
Kev npaj, Marrazzo tau hais tias, tib neeg yuav tsum khaws xov xwm txog qhov chaw uas tus kab mob kis tau thiab yuav tsum tau ceev faj kom lawv tus kheej muaj kev noj qab haus huv sai li sai tau: so kom txaus, ua si kom muaj zog, noj kom zoo, thiab tau txais tshuaj tiv thaiv kab mob npaws. Nws tseem hais ntxiv tias, kom koj paub tias koj lub cev tsis muaj zog tiv thaiv kev kis kab mob tseem ceeb dua tam sim no, " "Peb paub tias cov neeg feem ntau noj qab haus huv - tsis haus luam yeeb, tau txais lawv cov tshuaj tiv thaiv thiab lwm yam - cov khoom tiv thaiv kev mob cuam tshuam - cov no yog cov tib neeg ua tau zoo tshaj thaum lawv mus tom tsev kho mob rau kev phais mob; lawv zoo sai dua los ntawm kev phais mob. ”
Ntau dua li kev xav ntau rau kev sim cais tawm thiab tiv thaiv qhov no los ntawm kev sib kis - nws yuav kis mus - txhua txoj kev yuav tsum ua yog qhov peb tuaj yeem npaj tau zoo tshaj plaws. Michael Mina, MD, tus pab xibfwb ntawm kev kis kabmob, Harvard T.H. Chan Tsev Kawm Ntawv Kev Noj Qab Haus Huv.
Mina hais tias yog nws muaj hnub nyoog 65 lossis laus dua, nws yuav tsis tau tawm mus ncig txawv teb chaws tam sim no "tsis muaj qhov ceev faj," nws hais tias "yog tias nws tsuas yog ua kom lom zem xwb, nws yuav tsis txaus ntshai lub tswv yim ”kom rho tawm lossis ncua sijhawm txawv tebchaws. Nws hais tias nws tseem zoo dua rau cov neeg uas tsis xis nyob nyob hauv tsev tsis txhob mus ua haujlwm, ua tus saib xyuas lawv tus kheej kom tsis txhob kis mob rau lwm tus. Mina hais tias nws pom zoo nrog Tebchaws Meskas CDC hais tias COVID-19 tus kabmob yuav raug ntaus lub tebchaws no hnyav dua li nws muaj, thiab kis tau thoob zej zog. Nws yuav, qhov tseeb, twb tau nyob ntawm no, nws hais. CDC tau tso siab rau nws cov txheej txheem tshuaj tiv thaiv kab mob khaub thuas txhawm rau khaws qee qhov kev pab cuam ntawm COVID-19, tab sis nws tsis ntseeg tias ua haujlwm tau zoo txaus. Paub tias leej twg ntxim nyiam tshaj rau tus kab mob tuaj yeem pab cov zej zog teb zoo dua yog tias thiab thaum tus kab mob tuaj txog, Mina hais. Piv txwv li, tus neeg muaj hnub nyoog 80 xyoo uas mob ntsws yuav tsum tau siv tshuaj tua mob txij thaum pib yog tias lawv mob tus kab mob, es tsis tos kom txog thaum lawv tus mob loj dua tuaj.
Mina hais tias nws xav pom kev ntsuas hauv tsev, zoo li ntsuas cev xeeb tub, uas tib neeg tuaj yeem paub yog tias lawv tau kis mob yam tsis tau mus rau tom tsev kho mob lossis tsev kho mob thiab muaj feem kis cov kab mob KEV-19 ntxiv. Nws hais tias nws tseem txhawj xeeb tias Tebchaws Meskas tsis tau npaj txaus rau tus kabmob kis mus thoob tebchaws, raws li nws xav tias yuav ua rau qee lub sijhawm. Nws hais tias "Tsis yog xav ntau dhau rau kev sim cais tawm thiab tiv thaiv qhov no kom tsis txhob kis - nws yuav kis mus - txhua txoj kev yuav tsum ua yog qhov peb tuaj yeem npaj tau zoo tshaj plaws,"
Raws li ib txwm muaj, nyob ruaj ntseg.
- noog
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